GLOBAL TRADE TRENDS and short-term forecast
by: Alice Ancona, Senior Vice President and COO, World Trade Center Miami
The pandemic has impacted all parts of the world and every sector of industry. The World Center Miami continues to monitor the current situation and report back to you on recent projections as well as inform you on the movement of trade.
Both the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization are projecting significant declines for Q2 for global trade.
- Global trade continues nosedive, UNCTAD forecasts 20% drop in 2020
- The value of international trade in goods has declined by about 5 % in Q1 2020 and is expected to decline further by 27 % in Q2 2020
- World Trade Organization expects a decline at about 5%
- Trade Contraction from COVID-19 could be deeper than the financial crisis
In Q1 there was a -2.09% decline in value in Florida origin exports and a -.60% decline in imports. Certain commodities have done well, others have been hard hit. We do expect to see a greater decline in Q2.
of April, there was a -10% (-$1.9B YTD) decline in value in Florida origin exports and a -9.07% (-$2.47B) decline in imports.
The impact of global trade decline on Florida is along the same lines as the impact of the U.S. Below are trade impacts and trade flows for April YTD.
FLORIDA Top Origin Export Markets:
Q1 April 2020
Brazil +1.75% -8.85%
Canada +0.17% -4.74%
Mexico -18.52% -19%
United Kingdom +42% +32.46
Japan +47.6% +29.35%
Colombia -6.46% -14.87%
Dominican Republic -0.12% -8.7%
Germany -4.50% -13.06%
Chile -14.11% -25.07%
Peru -3.21% -17.7%
FLORIDA Top Import Sources:
Q1 April 2020
China -32% -31.75%
Ireland +362% +346.62%
Mexico -10.19% -18.22%
Canada +16.88% +6.19%
Germany +17.51% +6.82%
France -11.54% -22%
United Kingdom +53.16% -7.49%
Chile +17.35% +9.32%
Vietnam +45.42% +33.29%
Colombia +8.15% -3.93%
The Word Trade Center Miami will continue to report developments. Please stay tuned and sign up for updates.